What to Expect from Marcus Mariota in 2018 After exploring

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What to Expect from Marcus Mariota in 2018 After exploring

Postby zhangzk » 11th Jan 19, 07:11

McVay schemes last week Womens Tajae Sharpe Jersey , I decided to do an offshoot article detailing QB production in the same context.This time, however, I broadened the parameters beyond the first year install of each system.Every year in which Kyle Shanahan, Jay Gruden, and Sean McVay designed a team’s offense either as head coach or offensive coordinator was included.This way, we can not only get a feel for probable year one results for Marcus Mariota, but also project what his trajectory may look like as long as Matt LaFleur (or a disciple of this style of offense) remains in place.Below is a table which includes all of the data I collected.If you’re viewing it on a smartphone, it’s probably going to be clunky due to the width of the table.My apologies.You’re welcome to dig in deep and play with the numbers yourself—just make sure to comment with any additional findings/relevant projections.If you don’t want to drown in a sea of statistics, feel free to jump ahead and check out what I came away with.Note: In any seasons in which more than one QB threw 10 or more passes, a composite stat line is also included.This essentially produces a single QB season out of the multiple partial seasons, with averages weighted to the passing attempt share of each QB.Shanahan/Gruden/McVay QB Stats ReferenceLine ItemCoachYearYear #TeamQBAttemptsCompletionsComp. %Yards/Att.TD %Int %QB RatingDYARDVOALine ItemCoachYearYear #TeamQBAttemptsCompletionsComp. %Yards/Att.TD %Int %QB RatingDYARDVOAMmm ... Delicious NumbersWith all that in mind, the fun can begin.What is Marcus Mariota likely to accomplish this season and beyond under LaFleur?Of course, there are near infinite ways to frame the data in order to attempt to answer that question.Here are a few scenarios that I thought were worth noting, realistic, or intriguing:Average QBAn imaginary, generic QB that produced exactly average results based on 18 seasons worth of data on this scheme would:Throw 559 passing attemptsComplete 63.1% of those attemptsAmass roughly 4250 passing yards (7.6 yards/attempt)Throw 24 touchdowns (4.3 TD%)Throw 15 interceptions (2.7 INT%)Achieve a passer rating of 89.4Produce +538 DYARAchieve +4.2% DVOABased on where most pundits tier Mariota league-wide, they should expect something in this range.What’s ironic is that Womens Ryan Succop Jersey , in all likelihood, a season of this caliber would earn him more respect from those same pundits even though he’d still have been “average”.Production Within the Top Third All-Time in This SystemLet’s put a little ‘spect on MM8’s name and project that he’ll be slightly above average compared to all past QBs who’ve operated this scheme.What would it look like if he placed in the top third all-time in this system (calculated per metric)? I’m keeping the number of passing attempts “average” here, because we don’t yet know how pass happy LaFleur intends to be.559 passing attempts>66.3% completion rate=/> 8.1 yards/attempt (>~4530 passing yards)>5% TD rate (>~28 TDs)<2.4% INT rate (<~13 INTS)>97.2 QB Rating>+786 DYAR>+15.5% DVOAIt’s safe to say most of us would be pretty happy with this level of production.“LaFleurenstein’s Monster”By factoring in the tendencies of offenses Matt LaFleur has been directly associated with, as well as the current pieces on the Titans’ offense, I think it’s possible to filter the data set and arrive at a better estimate.We can expect LaFleur’s Titans offense to target running backs way more often than Mike Mularkey’s/Terry Robiskie’s—something in the approximate range of 80-100 targets combined for Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry seems plausible.Both Henry and Lewis have averaged better than 4.0 yards per carry in every one of their pro seasons.We can use that fact to eliminate offenses that could not reliably run the ball and were forced to pass more often because of it.We also can likely assume that, barring injury, Corey Davis will be the WR1 in terms of target share, with Rishard Matthews serving as a complementary possession receiver and Taywan Taylor adding a speed element either from the slot or on the outside.Using this logic, I pared down the number of reference points, arriving at 7 specific seasons that paralleled what we should expect to see from the Titans offense in 2018:2010 Redskins2013 Bengals2015 Falcons2016 Falcons2016 Redskins2017 Rams2017 49ersThe average of these offenses gives us this as an estimated guess at Mariota’s stat line in 2018:581 passing attempts63.5% completion rate~4475 passing yards (7.7 yards/attempt)26 Touchdowns (4.5 TD%)13 (2.3 INT%)92.5 QB Rating+696 DYAR+9.2% DVOAWhat I love about this projection is that it acknowledges the trends in past iterations of this offense while also staying true to numbers we’ve seen from Mariota previously.Put another way: outside of a noticeable increase in passing yards, which we should expect to see in this style of scheme, the rest of the metrics don’t stray too far from the ceiling set by MM8 three years into his career.A season like this would simultaneously be a return to form, a new ceiling, and an outstanding jumping off point for the future for Mariota.That brings us to one final comparison ...Year 1 vs. Year 2I isolated scenarios in which a player was the unquestioned starter (i.e. no significant missed time, no QB by committee) in two consecutive years.Unfortunately, that left us only Andy Dalton (2011/2012), Kirk Cousins (2015/2016) http://www.titanscheapshops.com/cheap-authentic-taylor-lewan-jersey , and Matt Ryan (2015/2016).Here are their averages during year one vs. year two.Year One:558 Passing Attempts64.7% completion rate7.3 yards/attempt4.2 TD%2.4 INT%90.3 QB rating662 DYAR+6.9% DVOAYear Two:556 Passing Attempts (2/3 passed more)66.4% completion rate (2/3 improved)8.1 yards/attempt (3/3 improved)5.4 TD% (2/3 improved)2.1 INT% (1 improved, 1 stayed the same, 1 regressed)100.6 QB rating (2/3 improved)1132 DYAR (2/3 improved)+18.0% DVOA (2/3 improved)Admittedly, this is a pretty small sample size.It’s bearing is also predicated on Marcus Mariota staying healthy for the grand majority of the next two seasons.Still, it’s good to see that, overall, things trend upward in year two, corroborating what many wise football minds have suggested about this offense.For what it’s worth, both Matt Schaub and Robert Griffin III were the intended starters for their offenses two years in a row, but both lost too much time to injury, in my opinion, to qualify for this comparison.In their respective year twos, Schaub clearly improved while Griffin III clearly declined.As always, thanks for reading!Breaking Down Marcus Mariota by Season Quarters The Tennessee Titans apparantly have the second easiest strength of schedule behind the Houston Texans. Not too much weight should be placed on the strength of schedule. History shows, there truly is no telling which team(s) will surprise and which will disappoint. QB Marcus Mariota is entering his fourth NFL season. His numbers are expected to ascend in OC Matt LaFleur’s offensive design. What have been the tendencies in Mariota’s regular season ebb and flows in terms of the statistics he has compiled in three seasons?Image
Let’s take a look.First Four GamesIn three years, Mariota typically has performed fairly decent. His 5-7 record isn’t great, but he has managed to produce some compelling stats in less than desirable offensive systems.He has yielded a 15:10 TD:INT ratio. Mariota has tossed 2 Cheap Kevin Byard Jersey ,737 yards and posts a 61% completion percentage. Mariota eclipsed over 1,000 passing yards in his rookie campaign over the first four games. That number has declined in each of the past two seasons. He threw for 925 passing yards in 2016, and dropped to 792 last season. His eight touchdown total in his rookie year has been his highest mark in the first quarter of the season. That number was cut in half in 2016, and dropped to three passing touchdowns last season. The number of interceptions Mariota has thrown over the first quarter of the season has been fairly consistent. He threw three in 2015, four the following year and tossed three last season.The Titans first quarter of the season is a tough one, and arguably may be the toughest. Two division opponents and the defending Super Bowl champions won’t be easy. Second Four GamesIn the second quarter of the season, Mariota boasts a 7-4 record. Statistically, some of his highest marks occur in the second chunk of play. Mariota’s completion percentage has been the highest in the second quarter of the season. He posted a 68% completion percentage in 2015, followed by 69% in 2016 and 67% last year. He has tallied a 18:5 TD:INT ratio during this stretch. Mariota’s 2,666 passing yards combined with a 68% completion average across three season indicates he has the potential to weather the storm if the Titans start the season flat.His passing yards have fluctuated over the last three years. In his rookie campaign, he produced 590 passing yards. He nearly doubled that in 2016, finishing with 949. His production slightly declined last season, dropping to 727.Mariota was superb in 2016 in weeks five through eight. He compiled a 10:1 TD:INT ratio and enjoyed a 69% completion percentage. He was unable to replicate the offensive production in 2017.The Titans split a home and away game with the Bills and Ravens before traveling to London to face a tough Chargers defense. They’ll be afforded a week of rest to heal up before facing Dallas on Monday Night Football.Outside of the Pittsburgh debacle last season, Mariota has shown up big on the prime time stage. The Titans will need Mariota to help the offensive attack move the ball and produce points - and the numbers suggest he will do so.Third Four GamesThis is where the numbers get interesting. Mariota had a significant drop off in point-production in the third stanza of the 2017 season. In the two prior years, he managed to post a 17:5 TD:INT ratio and had 2,026 total passing yards. He posted a 6-6 record - with five of the losses stemming from his rookie and sophomore seasons. Last season? Mariota’s TD:INT ratio was 4:7 and was the second time he threw more interceptions than touchdowns since the last quarter of his rookie year - a season he did not finish. However, he was 3-1 - but the wins weren’t pretty and the loss was stomach-churning.The new offensive attack has to establish a second-half punch that will help the Titans either get back into a game or secure a second half lead to finish teams. Mariota will have a heavy hand in helping the team do this Cheap Marcus Mariota Jersey , but reliance on the young receiver corps is a cause for concern to some.The third quarter of the 2018 season challenges the first quarter of the year as being the most difficult. Once again, the Titans will face two division opponents in the Texans and a Luck-led Colts squad, as well as the Super Bowl runner-up New England Patriots - a team that sent Mariota and company home last postseason.LaFleur’s offense will hopefully be gelling by this point in the year, but only time will tell. If the offense is struggling to find a groove and Mariota struggles to have formidable chemistry with his receiving weapons, this could be a make or break period for qualifying for the playoffs.Final Four GamesThis chunk is tough to quantify - mainly due to Mariota having missed some time during the later portion of his first and second year.In a smaller sample size, Mariota has totaled 1,543 passing yards, yielded a 4:5 TD:INT ratio and had a 59% completion average over three seasons. His record? 4-6.This is the area LaFleur and his coaching staff must improve not only Mariota’s individual performance, but the team as a whole. Last season, we witnessed the defense drag the team into the postseason by winning some grueling battles. The stalling offense just couldn’t find the end zone. In 2018, the offensive approach must set the tempo for playing “fast and aggressive”. The Titans must be able to establish a tempo early, and Mariota is a tone-setting QB. How does he factor down the stretch? Staying healthy - but that’s obvious. The second - and most important way he can factor into success down the stretch? By having a firm command of the offense, level of comfort and trust in his weapons (both old and new) and confidence that his coaches are putting him in the best position to show out.Mariota could improve his average numbers across each quarter of the seasons - but the most important will be the final four games. The stretch doesn’t seem too bad, but as mentioned above - you never know who will surprise and who will disappoint.
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